For the past few days I've been involved in an intra-town debate over voting for Likud versus Ichud Leumi. I suppose I should not be surprised that I've received a fair share of demagogical e-mails screaming that Bibi gave back Hevron and the only by voting for Ichud Leumi can we save the country.
Well, the media is reporting that Likud has its back to the wall and Kadima is licking its chops at the prospect of gaining more Knesset seats than Likud. Apparently, they're using that edge to get Arabs to vote Kadima in an attempt to stop Netanyahu (and Lieberman). The have already announced that if Kadima received just one seat more than Likud, it will demand that it receive the tap to form the government from President Peres who was elected as the representative of...Kadima. You can be sure, moreover, that the media and the Supreme Court will back that demand.
If this nightmare scenario, God forbid, is realized tonight, then the geniuses from Ichud Leumi and their ideological purist troops will have no one to blame but themselves. Yes, Likud made campaign mistakes. However, if they had not pushed against Likud, Livni would have no chance and the 60,000 more Jews she wants to evict from their homes and put in tents (like the refugees from Gush Katif) would be able to sleep in safety. Now, their lives and the fate of the country lie in the balance because the extremists had to be pure.
Say Tehillim 130.
Actually a Livni led government in a knesset where the Jewish RW bloc has a clear 10+ mandate over the Jewish LW bloc - and a 5 seat mandate over the entire LW, is probably the BEST outcome that could have happened for the Jews - and especially Yesha. Only a strong Likud led government can destroy settlements. Any Livni led government will not last more than 18 months. Frankly, the first governmebnt in this knesset will probably be replaced at some point during the term with a new coalition and new PM. It's nice to think that the 1984 knesset with a rotation agreement can be repeated, but the days of stinking maneuvers, defections, factions and whatnot have been upon us.
ReplyDeleteWeak, discredited left-wing governments that have no mandate or national unity governments have always been the best for Yesha. I agree with Yossi Beilin on this. I for one will be saying the Hallelujahs.
BB
well, get ready for the obama-livni coalition.....
ReplyDeleteA legal question: If Likud is two or three seats behind Kadima, can they make a post-election merger with a small party to put them over the top, and thus be treated as the largest party?
ReplyDeleteDo not blame Bibi's loss on those who voted for Ichud Leumi. Put the blame where it belongs - on Bibi. After the primaries in Likud I was prepared to vote Likud. But after watching what Bibi did to Feiglin and other rightists while he elevated people like Meridor, Dayan, and Peled, and after listening to Bibi constantly repeat that he wanted a coalition with Kadima,I decided to vote for Ichud Leumi. Not out of ideological purity, but because Bibi succeeded in pushing me (and many others) away. This decision was a long time in coming, as I listened to your (and many others) advice, but in the end I did not trust Bibi and he did not earn my vote.
ReplyDeleteBefore starting the blame game, remember that this electikon was Bibi's to lose. Because he ran away from the right, he lost.
on seeing old video of Bibi shaking arafat's hand, it truly makes no difference. absent Hashem's turning events, noone would withstand the Obama Messianic Force....
ReplyDeleteBibi made 3 big mistakes.
ReplyDelete1. He took the whole enterprise of the campaign on himself. By excluding other members of his party, he alienated them and prevented them from sharing the blame for a potential mess-up with him.
2. He didn't join forces with Lieberman when he had the chance. Lieberman would have cemented the right wing, allowing Bibi to move to the center w/o the fear of losing many seats on the right (Yisrael Beiteinu is the only small right wing party perceived as having the ability to run the government)
3. He moved to the left in an attempt to take over the center, in the process allowing the right to fall to Lieberman, and not realizing how much the Left hates him. He simply cannot woo leftist voters (upper middle class Tel Aviv and Haifa elites). The media has engendered such a hatred for him (some justified, much not) that leftists who wanted to vote for Labor voted for Kadima just to prevent Bibi from winning.
By voting Likud rather than Bayit hayehudi-you have reached the stage where a government could be made up of secular/ant-religious forces-add Likud Kadima and Yisrael Beiteeinu -you have 70 far more than enough-Lieberman is insisting on conversions and civil marriage as his core demands-he can go anywhere.
ReplyDeleteHow about a comment that total religious members of Knesset went down from about 34 to 28. New Knesset 19 from religious parties-including Shas-10 from the rest of the Knesset. The National Religious camp is very underrepresented because of their worship of Likud.
mycroft